Transitions¶
Model structure¶
LAYER 1 — Invariant: physics (energy, exergy, dissipation, gradients, constraints)
+ selection logic (variation, heredity, differential persistence)
LAYER 2 — Parameters: cost of each function (access, convert, store, copy,
transmit, process, vary, select)
LAYER 3 — State: where the bottleneck sits → what work exists, what is waste
Transition event = step change in Layer 2 → Layer 3 reorganizes
Timeline¶
E = exergy event, I = information event. Dates approximate.
| Event | Type | Made cheap | Bottleneck moved to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heredity (~4 bn yrs) | I | Storing constraints | Variation |
| Nervous systems | I | Fast in-body steering | Learning in one lifetime |
| Language (~100k+ yrs, uncertain) | I | Mind-to-mind transmission | Memory |
| Fire / tools | E | Conversion outside the body | Fuel, skill |
| Agriculture (~10k yrs) | E (+I) | Stored solar exergy | Coordination, accounting |
| Writing (~5k yrs) | I | Storage outside minds | Copying |
| Printing (1450s) | I | Copying | Literacy, filtering |
| Steam engine (1700s) | E | Fossil exergy → motion | Distribution, factory control |
| Electricity (1880s+) | E | Exergy transmission | Control, information processing |
| Computers (1940s+) | I | Information processing | Specification |
| Internet (1990s) | I | Copy + transmit ≈ zero | Attention, filtering |
| AI (2020s) | I (energy-bound) | Variants, routine judgment | Selection, evaluation, accountability; energy |
Patterns¶
D12. Bottleneck migration is the core dynamic; work follows scarcity. [Hypothesis]
D13. Exergy and information events alternate and fund each other. [Framing — some events are mixed]
D14. Intervals between transitions shrink. [Established as observation]
D15. Old functions sink into infrastructure rather than disappear. [Framing]
D16. Each transition opens a slack window — weak selection, surging waste and variation — followed by consolidation. [Hypothesis] Railway mania, dot-com, likely parts of the AI investment cycle.
AI specifically¶
- Information side: cheapens variation and parts of steering; scarcity moves to selection, grounding to real flows, accountability.
- Exergy side: data centers ~1.5% of global electricity (2024), projected ~double by 2030 (IEA; verify). First information event since electricity whose growth is visibly energy-bound.
- Unknown: full transition (printing-scale) or strong extension of computing.
Falsifier¶
A transition where scarcity disappeared rather than migrated. None known.